Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian–Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach
High tariff and non-tariff barriers, and costly transport links and inefficient trade facilitation measures continue to hamper the growth of trade between South Asia and Southeast Asia. This paper explores whether potential gains from improved connectivity—via Myanmar as inter-regional bridge—justify a high level of investment. Using an advanced computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, reduction of inter-regional tariffs, decreasing of non-tariff barriers by 50%, and cutting down of trade costs between South Asia and Southeast Asia by 15% yields a prediction of 8.9% rise in welfare in South Asia and Southeast Asia, and an increase of 6.4% in gross domestic product by 2030.
Author: Ganeshan Wignaraja, Peter Morgan, Michael Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Tags: Transport, Trade Facilitation, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Regional Integration, Tariff, Trade, Connectivity, Investment, Myanmar, GDP